|
| |
| |
|
Gibbons' Trading


Timer Digest
2002/2007/2008/2010 Timer of the Year

|
2010 |
Date of Signal |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
+/- |
|
|
S |
1/1/10 |
1115.10 |
|
|
|
L |
2/8/10 |
1056.74 |
58.36 |
|
|
S |
3/4/10 |
1122.97 |
66.23 |
|
|
L |
5/7/10 |
1110.88 |
12.09 |
|
|
S |
5/13/10 |
1157.43 |
46.55 |
|
|
L |
5/25/10 |
1074.03 |
83.40 |
|
|
S |
5/28/10 |
1089.41 |
15.38 |
|
|
L |
6/18/10 |
1117.51 |
-28.10 |
|
|
S |
7/9/10 |
1077.96 |
-39.55 |
|
|
L |
8/31/10 |
1049.33 |
28.63 |
|
|
S |
10/15/10 |
1176.19 |
126.86 |
|
|
L |
10/29/10 |
1183.26 |
-7.07 |
|
|
Last |
12/31/10 |
1276.34 |
93.08 |
|
|
Total |
|
|
455.86 |
161.24 |
I used a shorter term version of my Twin-Bar
Trading System in 2010 for my buy/sell signals monitored by Timer Digest.
The S&P 500 was up 161.24 points for the year- I was up 455.86 points.
Prices predict the future- not investors
(I
sent the following to subscribers in September 2008)
You
should know that I rarely (if ever) talk about the news. My view as a trader
for 38 years is that market moves create the news, not that the news creates
market moves. Therefore, to say that this news event caused the market to do
thus and so - is absurd. No one knows why the markets do anything (although
many traders with great hubris think they know), but it is a claim that
cannot be epistemologically defended in my view. I have made immense trading
profits for my clients and myself precisely because I do not listen to the
news or any outside influences. I follow a 100% non-emotional and highly
disciplined mechanical trading strategy. And finally, to make money trading,
we need only to know that markets move- not why they move. All of my trading
methods are primarily based on price because price is reality. Trends in
motion will stay in motion until they reverse.
"It's not luck Todd"
-Louis Winthorpe III
in Trading Places-
Michael Gibbons'
Twin-Bar Trading System
My creation of the Twin-Bar
Trading System enables us to win at a rate far greater than traditional
investment strategies including even the most highly profitable trend following
methods. If you examine the trading results below, you will see why I think the
Twin-Bar Trading System is one of the most effective trading methods ever
discovered. This is not hype or some exaggerated claim in any context. Simply
examine the trading record-it speaks for itself.
The Twin-Bar Trading System
is primarily a breakout method that uses very few parameters so as to not
reduce statistical degrees of freedom. based upon what the market is
actually doing (it uses daily high/low/close prices as the only data input)-
not what some people think it should or will be doing. The Twin-Bar Trading
System does well because unlike most other trend following systems, mine has
a non-trending component that protects against many whipsaws in non-trending
markets. This means we get fewer false trading signals and we are able to
greatly elongate winning trades.
Trend following is about surrendering
to the now situation in the market .
We simply go with the flow and leave our egos at the door. If the market is
going up, we are generally long. If the market is going down, we are
generally short. What we think a market should or will do is irrelevant. We
do what the market is doing.
I do not comment on news or anything
other than what the market is doing. Economic fundamentals may move the
markets over the long term, but those fundamentals are reflected in price
action. All fundamental and technical buying and selling is reflected in one
thing- price. Price is therefore the major component of the Twin-Bar
Trading System. Remember, prices predict the future- not investors.

Publication
schedule
Gibbons' Trading financial
publications are sent to you every Sunday morning. In addition, unlike other
financial information writers that have a fixed publication schedule, we
publish whenever the markets tell us to act. In a very active market, you
might receive updates several times a week. We
provide a totally disciplined approach to trading with no emotion added. We
are not fundamental traders that write reams of prose with "stories" that
support our trades. You get high probability trades, and we make occasional
specific market comments based upon the
Twin-Bar Trading System.
Because of our track record,
our publications are not inexpensive. This is logical as our clients are
willing to pay for the edge we provide on a consistent basis. Subscribers to
our trading publications include large traders, banks, forex dealers, hedge
funds, brokers, futures funds, insurance companies, risk management firms,
and many institutional money managers. Gibbons' Twin-Bar Trading
System works because it cannot miss a major market move by definition, and
it cannot be on the wrong side of a moving market for long (cut losses
short). This eliminates two of the major causal reasons for trader failure.
The first reason is that many traders fail to capitalize (they miss the
trade) on occasional major market moves that are responsible for much of the
profitability in any given year. The second reason is that many traders
allow losses to run. Disciplined systematic trend followers cannot let
losses run because most trend following models will jump out of losing
trades fairly quickly and reverse course to get on the right side of a
directional move.
Black swans (unexpected
events) will always occur, and we take advantage of them if they cause
sufficient change in directional movement. The Twin-Bar Trading System can
take advantage of black swan events (we went short on 10/9/1987) days before
the crash. The Twin-Bar has been on the correct side of all major market
moves for it's entire history.

Prices predict the future- not investors,
traders or analysts
One of the biggest mistakes the vast majority
of investors and traders make is to hold to the premise that you have to be
able to forecast to make money in the markets. That is why "forecasting"
services and predictions are so popular. People attempting to tell you (for
a price like a fortune teller) what the best stocks are to hold for the
future, what a stock will do a year from now, or if gold will be higher or
lower in two years. Gurus galore and they tell you with great hubris how
they have a special connection to the future. The reality is, no on can
predict or forecast markets with any consistency over long periods of time.
Fortune tellers make predictions as do most
investors. What they don't get is that no one can predict or know the
future. Trend following is about reacting to the now situation and thus we
never attempt to pick tops and bottoms.
Black swans are much more common than most
people think, and fat tails are where we make a lot of our profit. The
Twin-Bar Trading System has been on the right side of every major market
move in history. It has done that because it automatically adjusts and
changes course (if need be) to mirror the market and cannot miss a move
because of it's construction.
The reason for our success is precisely the
opposite of making predictions. We follow trends- we don't predict
anything. If a market is going up, at a certain point we go long because a
market going up is repeating what it has done recently- that is, going up. If a
market is going down, we sell and sell short. We don't have price objectives or
targets and the so-called analytical methods employed by most investors are
worthless. We simply get aboard the bucking bronco and ride the horse in the
direction it's going.
Of course trend following is not popular despite
it's highly profitable track record. That is because if trend following was
widely accepted, there would be no need for about 95% of the people employed in
the financial industry. There would be no need for fundamental analysis and no
need for any financial media other than to report on results. Logically, trend
followers receive almost no media coverage. Now, why would that be?
***Track Record***
S&P 500
275.1% ROI
since 11/2007

There is nothing magical about the Twin-Bar Trading System
as it simply buys when the bars at the bottom of the screen are blue and
sells when the bars are red. This provides significant profits over time
because we catch all major market trends. We automatically let profits run
and cut our losses short- something the vast majority of investors are
simply unable to do on a consistent basis. We do not "predict" markets- we
let them predict themselves. We take out the human element (emotion) because
the Twin-Bar Trading System is a purely mechanical trend following method.
How to subscribe
We offer three (3) trading publications
Simply click on the button below and tell us you want to
subscribe and we will provide you with all the details

S&P 500 Twin-Bar Trading System Publication
S&P 500 trading signals are generated exclusively by the
Twin-Bar Trading System
275.1% ROI
since 11/2007 on $80,000 margin
1 year subscription
$25,000.00
Pinch Trading System Publication
Long term trend following system that trades 33 major
futures markets
74% winning closed trades since inception
Profit factor of 12.76
1 year subscription
$125,000.00
Discretionary Trading System Publication
Michael Gibbons' discretionary trades based on short-term
swing price trading
(This is what was used for every trade given to Timer
Digest since 2002)
100% winning closed trades
since inception
1 year subscription
$125,000.00
Private Research and Mentoring
We provide our proprietary research to clients on an on-demand basis. The
Twin-Bar Trading System is capable of analyzing any freely traded market or
stock in the world. If it is contained in our extensive CSI data base, we
can research it for you. This research is designed for mutual funds, large
institutional traders, and hedge funds that require ongoing generic buy and
sell trading signals. Please inquire as to pricing.
Mentoring is provided to a very limited number of traders per year.
Included in the one year mentoring program is four hours per month of one on
one interaction with Michael Gibbons. Michael covers the importance of
systematic trading and the psychology necessary to produce winning trades.
In addition, each mentoring client receives three proprietary trend
following mechanical trading systems. Clients are provided with all of the
tools necessary to be successful. Please inquire as to pricing.
T he Commodity Futures Trading Commission requires we display the
following disclaimer and it applies to any futures trading statistics or
other futures trading information found on this site:
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF
WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT
WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN
FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL
PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY
PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL
PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF
HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL
RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE
IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO
WITHSTAND LOSSES OR ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF
TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN
GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH
CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE
RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.
RESULTS NOT ADJUSTED FOR COMMISSION AND SLIPPAGE.
There is a risk of loss in trading stocks, currencies, bonds, futures or
any other financial market. Please be certain that you thoroughly understand
the risks involved in trading before you trade. Gibbons Trading LLC does not
offer person to person individual advice nor will we comment on any specific
issue related to trading. We do not tailor our trades to fit any specific
person's portfolio. We do not manage customer funds. We are not commodity
trading advisors or investment advisors. Gibbons Trading LLC is a stocks and
futures electronic information publisher. We provide buy and sell signals
for a wide variety of markets based on our research.
Due to the nature of our trading, we can (and will) have periods of
losses-sometimes long periods of losses. If you cannot afford to have
trading losses from time to time, you should not trade.
Note
we do not offer refunds for any reason. Before you subscribe, make certain
you are clear on the content of the publication you will be receiving.
UNAUTHORIZED DISCLOSURE NOTICE
CONFIDENTIALITY NOTE: The information contained in the
Gibbons' Trading Futures and Pinch publications is private, legally privileged
and confidential information intended only for the use of registered
subscribers. If the reader of either the Gibbons' Trading Futures or Pinch
publication is not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that the
reading, dissemination, distribution, forwarding or copying of the Gibbons'
Trading Futures and Pinch publications is strictly prohibited and grounds for
the immediate termination of the subscription, without the right of refund,
of any registered Gibbons' Trading subscriber who participates in such
distribution, dissemination, forwarding or copying. Gibbons' Trading
reserves the right to monitor the use of the Gibbons' Trading Futures and
Pinch publications, by whichever electronic means it deems appropriate.
WARNING: Reproduction of any of the material contained in
the Gibbons' Trading Futures and Pinch publications, forwarding of same, or
any portion thereof, by e-mail, fax, photocopying or any other means,
substantial quotation of any portion of the Gibbons' Trading ETF and Futures
publications, or any other use of same by any person other than the
registered subscriber, without the written permission of Gibbons' Trading
LLC, may violate copyright laws and subject the violator to legal
prosecution. All rights reserved.



|
|