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Gibbons' Trading
Timer Digest 2002/2007/2008/2010 Timer of the Year
I used a shorter term version of my Twin-Bar Trading System in 2010 for my buy/sell signals monitored by Timer Digest. The S&P 500 was up 161.24 points for the year- I was up 455.86 points. Prices predict the future- not investors (I sent the following to subscribers in September 2008) You should know that I rarely (if ever) talk about the news. My view as a trader for 38 years is that market moves create the news, not that the news creates market moves. Therefore, to say that this news event caused the market to do thus and so - is absurd. No one knows why the markets do anything (although many traders with great hubris think they know), but it is a claim that cannot be epistemologically defended in my view. I have made immense trading profits for my clients and myself precisely because I do not listen to the news or any outside influences. I follow a 100% non-emotional and highly disciplined mechanical trading strategy. And finally, to make money trading, we need only to know that markets move- not why they move. All of my trading methods are primarily based on price because price is reality. Trends in motion will stay in motion until they reverse. "It's not luck Todd" -Louis Winthorpe III in Trading Places- Michael Gibbons' Twin-Bar Trading System My creation of the Twin-Bar Trading System enables us to win at a rate far greater than traditional investment strategies including even the most highly profitable trend following methods. If you examine the trading results below, you will see why I think the Twin-Bar Trading System is one of the most effective trading methods ever discovered. This is not hype or some exaggerated claim in any context. Simply examine the trading record-it speaks for itself. The Twin-Bar Trading System is primarily a breakout method that uses very few parameters so as to not reduce statistical degrees of freedom. based upon what the market is actually doing (it uses daily high/low/close prices as the only data input)- not what some people think it should or will be doing. The Twin-Bar Trading System does well because unlike most other trend following systems, mine has a non-trending component that protects against many whipsaws in non-trending markets. This means we get fewer false trading signals and we are able to greatly elongate winning trades. Trend following is about surrendering to the now situation in the market . We simply go with the flow and leave our egos at the door. If the market is going up, we are generally long. If the market is going down, we are generally short. What we think a market should or will do is irrelevant. We do what the market is doing.I do not comment on news or anything other than what the market is doing. Economic fundamentals may move the markets over the long term, but those fundamentals are reflected in price action. All fundamental and technical buying and selling is reflected in one thing- price. Price is therefore the major component of the Twin-Bar Trading System. Remember, prices predict the future- not investors.
Publication schedule Gibbons' Trading financial publications are sent to you every Sunday morning. In addition, unlike other financial information writers that have a fixed publication schedule, we publish whenever the markets tell us to act. In a very active market, you might receive updates several times a week. We provide a totally disciplined approach to trading with no emotion added. We are not fundamental traders that write reams of prose with "stories" that support our trades. You get high probability trades, and we make occasional specific market comments based upon the Twin-Bar Trading System.Because of our track record, our publications are not inexpensive. This is logical as our clients are willing to pay for the edge we provide on a consistent basis. Subscribers to our trading publications include large traders, banks, forex dealers, hedge funds, brokers, futures funds, insurance companies, risk management firms, and many institutional money managers. Gibbons' Twin-Bar Trading System works because it cannot miss a major market move by definition, and it cannot be on the wrong side of a moving market for long (cut losses short). This eliminates two of the major causal reasons for trader failure. The first reason is that many traders fail to capitalize (they miss the trade) on occasional major market moves that are responsible for much of the profitability in any given year. The second reason is that many traders allow losses to run. Disciplined systematic trend followers cannot let losses run because most trend following models will jump out of losing trades fairly quickly and reverse course to get on the right side of a directional move. Black swans (unexpected events) will always occur, and we take advantage of them if they cause sufficient change in directional movement. The Twin-Bar Trading System can take advantage of black swan events (we went short on 10/9/1987) days before the crash. The Twin-Bar has been on the correct side of all major market moves for it's entire history.
Prices predict the future- not investors, traders or analysts One of the biggest mistakes the vast majority of investors and traders make is to hold to the premise that you have to be able to forecast to make money in the markets. That is why "forecasting" services and predictions are so popular. People attempting to tell you (for a price like a fortune teller) what the best stocks are to hold for the future, what a stock will do a year from now, or if gold will be higher or lower in two years. Gurus galore and they tell you with great hubris how they have a special connection to the future. The reality is, no on can predict or forecast markets with any consistency over long periods of time. Fortune tellers make predictions as do most investors. What they don't get is that no one can predict or know the future. Trend following is about reacting to the now situation and thus we never attempt to pick tops and bottoms. Black swans are much more common than most people think, and fat tails are where we make a lot of our profit. The Twin-Bar Trading System has been on the right side of every major market move in history. It has done that because it automatically adjusts and changes course (if need be) to mirror the market and cannot miss a move because of it's construction. The reason for our success is precisely the opposite of making predictions. We follow trends- we don't predict anything. If a market is going up, at a certain point we go long because a market going up is repeating what it has done recently- that is, going up. If a market is going down, we sell and sell short. We don't have price objectives or targets and the so-called analytical methods employed by most investors are worthless. We simply get aboard the bucking bronco and ride the horse in the direction it's going. Of course trend following is not popular despite it's highly profitable track record. That is because if trend following was widely accepted, there would be no need for about 95% of the people employed in the financial industry. There would be no need for fundamental analysis and no need for any financial media other than to report on results. Logically, trend followers receive almost no media coverage. Now, why would that be?
***Track Record*** S&P 500 275.1% ROI since 11/2007
There is nothing magical about the Twin-Bar Trading System as it simply buys when the bars at the bottom of the screen are blue and sells when the bars are red. This provides significant profits over time because we catch all major market trends. We automatically let profits run and cut our losses short- something the vast majority of investors are simply unable to do on a consistent basis. We do not "predict" markets- we let them predict themselves. We take out the human element (emotion) because the Twin-Bar Trading System is a purely mechanical trend following method. How to subscribe We offer three (3) trading publications Simply click on the button below and tell us you want to subscribe and we will provide you with all the details
S&P 500 Twin-Bar Trading System Publication S&P 500 trading signals are generated exclusively by the Twin-Bar Trading System 275.1% ROI since 11/2007 on $80,000 margin1 year subscription $25,000.00 Pinch Trading System Publication Long term trend following system that trades 33 major futures markets 74% winning closed trades since inception Profit factor of 12.76 1 year subscription $125,000.00 Discretionary Trading System Publication Michael Gibbons' discretionary trades based on short-term swing price trading (This is what was used for every trade given to Timer Digest since 2002) 100% winning closed trades since inception1 year subscription $125,000.00 Private Research and Mentoring We provide our proprietary research to clients on an on-demand basis. The Twin-Bar Trading System is capable of analyzing any freely traded market or stock in the world. If it is contained in our extensive CSI data base, we can research it for you. This research is designed for mutual funds, large institutional traders, and hedge funds that require ongoing generic buy and sell trading signals. Please inquire as to pricing. Mentoring is provided to a very limited number of traders per year. Included in the one year mentoring program is four hours per month of one on one interaction with Michael Gibbons. Michael covers the importance of systematic trading and the psychology necessary to produce winning trades. In addition, each mentoring client receives three proprietary trend following mechanical trading systems. Clients are provided with all of the tools necessary to be successful. Please inquire as to pricing. T he Commodity Futures Trading Commission requires we display the following disclaimer and it applies to any futures trading statistics or other futures trading information found on this site:HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. RESULTS NOT ADJUSTED FOR COMMISSION AND SLIPPAGE. There is a risk of loss in trading stocks, currencies, bonds, futures or any other financial market. Please be certain that you thoroughly understand the risks involved in trading before you trade. Gibbons Trading LLC does not offer person to person individual advice nor will we comment on any specific issue related to trading. We do not tailor our trades to fit any specific person's portfolio. We do not manage customer funds. We are not commodity trading advisors or investment advisors. Gibbons Trading LLC is a stocks and futures electronic information publisher. We provide buy and sell signals for a wide variety of markets based on our research. Due to the nature of our trading, we can (and will) have periods of losses-sometimes long periods of losses. If you cannot afford to have trading losses from time to time, you should not trade. Note we do not offer refunds for any reason. Before you subscribe, make certain you are clear on the content of the publication you will be receiving.UNAUTHORIZED DISCLOSURE NOTICE CONFIDENTIALITY NOTE: The information contained in the Gibbons' Trading Futures and Pinch publications is private, legally privileged and confidential information intended only for the use of registered subscribers. If the reader of either the Gibbons' Trading Futures or Pinch publication is not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that the reading, dissemination, distribution, forwarding or copying of the Gibbons' Trading Futures and Pinch publications is strictly prohibited and grounds for the immediate termination of the subscription, without the right of refund, of any registered Gibbons' Trading subscriber who participates in such distribution, dissemination, forwarding or copying. Gibbons' Trading reserves the right to monitor the use of the Gibbons' Trading Futures and Pinch publications, by whichever electronic means it deems appropriate. WARNING: Reproduction of any of the material contained in the Gibbons' Trading Futures and Pinch publications, forwarding of same, or any portion thereof, by e-mail, fax, photocopying or any other means, substantial quotation of any portion of the Gibbons' Trading ETF and Futures publications, or any other use of same by any person other than the registered subscriber, without the written permission of Gibbons' Trading LLC, may violate copyright laws and subject the violator to legal prosecution. All rights reserved.
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